Nick B Day 11

Hey there! Today I've started hanging out in the Forex4Noobs chatroom, there I can see all the pros trade and discuss strategies. This afternoon the Official Bank Rate for GBP was due. The price of the GBP/JPY dropped 150 pips in less than 10 minutes. However, I noted that the price failed to pierce the 161.50 S-R Line. I therefore set myself up for a reversal trade and entered on heavy momentum after it broke upwards from the 161.20 line.



Result: + 70 pips Reached my profit target for the week at 20%

To note: Fetor, an experienced trader, was against this long entry. He believed that the price would continue to fall, pierce 160.50, and continue downwards. He believed that it would result in a long term downtrend.

I might also have been lucky as the price might have been boosted upwards due to Unemployment news from USD. Either way, I would have been very careful about this trade and would have exited if i felt uncomfortable.

Trade 2

Fetor was right. After I took my 70 pips, the price tumbled all the way past the 160.50 S-R Line, which I had marked green. However, because there were numerous bounces on it over the week I decided it was safe to start trading it again. Shorted at 160.35 and exited manually at 160.05 after I saw that there was substantial support at the psych level of 160.00.



Result: + 30 pips

Nick B Day 10 - Killed by news

Entered Long upon a break of a previous high, at 162.22. Trade went well until ADP Non-Farm Employment Change for USD came out, I was wiped out in less than 5 minutes. This was unusual because USD news rarely affects GBP/JPY as much as this, barring of course the major ones like GDP, Interest rates etc.

Screenie of 5 min chart:



Result: - 30 pips

Almost immediately after the price restored -_-


Trade 2

So after news came out the price plumetted. However, it was apparent that the price was not going to pierce the 160.50 S- R Line. This was confirmed by the long red candle and the super long wick you see below on the 4H chart. After confirmation, I entered long for 70 pips. This was my first successful reversal trade. However, I did not take full profit. I took at 56 pips, as it was getting late and I did not want to leave any trades overnight. If I did, I would have taken the full 70 pips.



Result: + 56 pips

Nick B Day 9

Ok woke up on Tuesday morning and saw that there was substantial movement downwards on the GBP/JPY. Unusual, as Asian hours aren't particularly exciting. Anyways, I saw that the price continued downwards so I set up a short order of 30 pips TP and SL at 161.00, which was also a previous low. The price triggered my order and went upwards, never looking back.

After much consideration I realised my mistake. I was not trading a reversal: I was trading a correction. Below is a 5 minute chart illustrating my mistake.



Lesson to learn: Never trade early in the day, if you do, make sure you do so with a diminished amount, such as my 30 pips SL.

Result: -30 pips

Update: At 3pm local time, the price dropped 100 pips in 10 minutes. Crazy times. Will observe more and report later

Trading with NickB Day 8

3 August 2009: Entered long on a break of the 160.50 scalp line, S-R line and psychological line. Yeap it was actually a combination of all 3! Super entry signal :) Anyhoo, 15 minutes later I took 35 pips profit because the 161.00 psych level was dangerously close. Not bad work for 15 minutes of work!



Result: +35 pips

Weekly result: I am up by 14%, meeting my target of 7% a week!

NickB Day 4 & 5

Good day everyone! Sorry for not updating the blog. Blogger was down for the last 2 days it seems. It has been 2 good trading days in a row now. I'm getting really used to this new lifestyle and i'm gaining positiveness and experience.

Ok so on Monday, I listened to Fetor's webminar and gosh alot of stuff suddenly made sense. All along I've been trading blindly relying on indicators and systems, not really understanding what moved the market.

Trade 1
I've been ignoring the most important indicator of all - Price. Anyhoo, listening to Fetor's stuff I drew some trend lines on the Guppy as you can see, and I entered an experimental trade shorting the GBP at 155.54, believeing that a trend line coupled together with a S-R line directly above it would effectively ceiling the price from climbing any higher.

Well I was wrong. The price almost immediately went in the opposite direction and I cut my loss at -30 pips.

Result: - 30 pips

Trade 2
In the same hourly candle I then entered a long trade at 156.14, having fulfilled all my NickB criteria. This time the trade went all the way up to 156.76. I took profit at 65 pips as I thought the price was wavering too much for my tastes. Obviously it went all the way through in the next hour, and continued to climb to a high of 157.49, never breaking a sweat.



Result: + 65 pips

Trade 3
Tuesday seemed to be a quiet day. Went about my business and filed my final Long Call papers! Woohoo! Anyhoo, dropped by Wan Leng's place for dinner. I got back at around 9pm and I saw to my surprise that the price had pierced the 156.05 S-R Line by quite a bit. This line was significant as it also was very near to the psychological round number of 156.00. However, the price seemed to have retraced to I patiently waited to see if the price would bounce back past the line. After it did, I entered short and waited.

There was USD news due at 10pm - The Consumer's Board's Consumer Confidence index. That probably spiked the price a bit upwards but the price continued downwards after that. I took my full 70 pips profit and the price went on till about 80 pips. It has reversed at the time of this writing but i'm pretty confident it will go down all the way nearer to the scalp line of 155.10. Will keep you guys updated!

Take care, and stay safe everyone!

Result: +70 pips

Trade 4

Update: at 11.20pm Malaysian time the price continued downwards and broke through the 155.10 scalp line. I therefore waited for the price to break through the 155.00 psychological line. After observing strong momentum I entered with 5% and it went all the way down to net me another 50 pips.



Result: + 50 pips

Update 2: The price continues to tumble and it broke the 154.32 S-R Line. I didn't take this trade as 1) The daily movement has already far exceeded the daily average of 287 pips and 2) I had already made 120 pips today so i'm not going to push my luck.

Update 3: I was right. The price reversed upwards and is now aranging amongst the 2 S-R Lines.

Currently my account sits at 7% profit after a week of trading. It could have been much more if I did not make stupid mistakes and experimental trades. All in all its a good experience, but only because I'm learning how to trade PROPERLY.

Biggest Mistake Ever - NickB Day 4

As the title suggests, today I committed the biggest mistake I've ever made in my brief trading career. I went to sleep at 8am (Malaysian time) in the morning, setting a short order at 155.85 with a buffer of 20 pips from the S-R Line at 156.05. This is because in the past few days I missed a couple of S-R pierces when I was asleep.

The mistake: 1) I knew that there was a major piece of news coming out at 4.30 pm today: the UK preliminary GDP report. 2) I woke up at 5.00pm, much later than usual. Piece them together and what do you get.... wait for it.... YES! Insta-stupidity.

When I awoke I realised to my horror that my short order had JUST been filled. And of course, the whole tumble of the price was due to worse than expected GDP figures released at 4.30pm. The worst thing: the price JUST touched my order, triggered it, and set off on a march in the opposite direction. After an hour of heartbreak I just closed the position at 32 pips.

Result: - 32 pips
I need to start treating myself seriously as a trader. Recently there have been too many distractions, family obligations, and time away from the home office with friends. And definitely,DEFINITELY, not sleeping through an order set in the same direction as a MAJOR news release.

Sheesh, at least the weekend is here.

NickB Day 3

At GMT15.00 the price approached the S-R line at 154.32. However, price momentum was very low. I therefore took a conservative approach and set up a buy order at 154.41, which was a minor psychological level. My buy order was filled at GMT 16.44, with a stop loss and take profit of 50 pips each. approximately 2 and a half hours later my stop loss was hit. Prior to that the price reached a high of 154.64. The price then went all the way down, hit my stop loss, and bounced twice on the S-R Line. I did not feel secure in the position so I went to sleep.

When I woke up I saw that my long order was actually correct. Check out the screenie below:



Result: - 50 pips
Lesson Learnt: Nothing I could have done. This was merely one of the trades where my stop loss was not quite far enough for the position to reverse. Another thing: It seems that I should monitor my trades closely after entering. The author of this system seems to take profit whenever he feels unsecure. I am very confident about this strategy. I am sure that it will work for me once I get comfortable with the Guppy.

Trade 2

Continuing from where we left off! As I said I was correct in my earlier trade. Well the price didn't stop there! It kept climbing and it actually touched the 156.05 S-R Line. I observed the price and was surprised to see that it actually crept up to 156.25, a whole 20 pips above the S-R line. However, I didn't enter as there was a scalp line 156.40. I decided to enter upon a break of that scalp line instead. Turns out I was right. The price plummeted to 155.40. It wasn't until 3 hours later when the price approached the S-R Line again. Check out the screenie below.



After that it was northwards all the way. Understandably there was serious resistance at 157.00, a true psychological resistance line if ever. It took 3 bounces in total for the price to actually break through. I was observing the price all the time and I must say, today was a real lesson in trading psychology. I NEED TO STARE AT SOMETHING ELSE INSTEAD OF MY POSITIONS!
There's no point in fretting about it. Well eventually the price broke through and I got my full 50 pips. Yay!



Result: + 50 pips